Read chapter 9, “ARIMA models” of Forecasting: Principles and Practice.
Download the monthly temperature time series data from Klimadashboard Münster (raw file).
- read the file in R
- convert it into a
ts time series object; deal with the gap in WW2
- compute the acf and pacf
- decompose the data into a trend, periodic and residual
- compute the trend in monthly mean temperature over the last 20 years
- create a forecast for jul 2050